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June 24, 1991,Section A, Page8Buy Reprints
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Confetti and cheers showered the 335 seniors when they graduated today from Abraham Lincoln High School here. But beneath the euphoria lay haunting worries among the graduates about the future.

Evangelia Notidis, 17 years old and the school's top student, fretted that the economy might undermine her efforts to pay for a medical career.

Bryan Mahoney, 19, worried that even with a college education he would be hard-pressed to match his parents' quality of life. Laid Off and Looking for Work

Nicole Dunnigan, 17, who was laid off earlier this year from a $220-a-week job as a part-time clerk at a real estate agency, has been unable to find other work. She wants to earn money for training to become a court stenographer.

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Maureen Powers, 18, who plans to enter college in the fall, best summed up the anxiety felt by her classmates and many other high school graduating seniors around the country: 'We're scared.'

For good reason. A generation of young people has been pushed into the harshest economic climate any high school class has faced in at least 25 years, according to guidance counselors, economists, demographers and the parents of these students.

For starters, these young people have graduated into a recession that has resulted in widespread layoffs and chilled the creation of new jobs. The job market also continues to shift toward more skilled work in technology, aerospace and health care, which, while not necessarily requiring a college education, does require additional training.

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Over all, the Bureau of Labor Statistics expects about 18 million new jobs to be created by the economy from 1988 through the year 2000, only about half the number created in the 12-year period through 1988.

And many of the new jobs will be highly technical, requiring skills beyond the reach of high school graduates who cannot get advanced training. At the same time, most of the unskilled jobs in manufacturing, which paid previous generations enough to support a style of life that included comfortable housing, no longer exist. Housing Is the Hurdle

Housing prices and rents, moreover, are now among the highest in this century, even when earlier periods are adjusted for inflation. And salaries, both for those with only high school diplomas and those with college degrees, have not kept pace with housing costs.

In 1967, the year many parents of this generation left high school, the average salary for all workers in the United States, including college graduates, was $6,845, according to the Census Bureau, a figure that is $26,786 when adjusted to 1990 dollars. In 1990, the average salary was $29,912, only slightly better and still far behind the rise in the cost of housing, medical care and some other living expenses.

'This generation will have less,' said David Capuzzi, the assistant dean at the school of education at Portland State University in Oregon and a former president of the American Association for Counseling and Development. 'More will buy their starter home at 40, while their parents bought theirs at 25. They know this, and it has discouraged them.'

The shift in the job market seems certain to continue through 2000 as corporations move unskilled jobs to cheaper foreign labor markets. Even demographics have conspired against this generation. The generation of babies born after World War II, the oldest of whom are now in their 40's and some of whom are parents of this generation, have a stranglehold on jobs for at least 20 more years. Good Jobs Move Away

'There really is a hell of a difference between this class and that of their parents,' said Harry C. Wilcox, the principal at Lincoln High School, who for 35 years has watched classes graduate from the ethnically and economically mixed school in Northeast Philadelphia. 'The good jobs are moving farther away from the poor jobs, and there aren't any jobs in between. The kid who doesn't go to college won't be able to do as well as their mother or father.'

Even those who do go to college are not assured of high-paying, fast-track jobs. For the last two years, college graduates have had to scale back their expectations in the face of a sharply reduced job market, primarily because of the recession.

It is still too early to get statistics on the number of high school graduates who will be going to college in the fall or those who will be seeking specialized training. But in interviews with about 50 graduates around the country, nearly all who are not heading for college said they hope to go to trade school to bolster their skills. Many of their parents were able to slip easily into the job market and begin earning money right away.

One of the few recent graduates to say he would be going straight to the workplace was Michael Arinwine, 17, a graduate of Manual Arts High School in Los Angeles.

'I'll go get a job,' Mr. Arinwine said, although he is not yet sure where. 'I know the economy ain't that bad. I know I can at least survive.' Some Find Reason for Optimism

One of his classmates, Nia Foxx, is not convinced. 'A lot of my friends are going to work in fast-food, but there's no way they can support a family or get anything they want in jobs like that,' said Ms. Foxx, who is also 17. 'These days, you have to have a college education to get anywhere in life.'

To be sure, some students say there is reason for optimism. Miss Foxx plans to attend the University of California at Santa Cruz as a pre-law major, something she said she could not have done in another era because of discrimination. 'I have a real chance as a female, a black female, to enter the law profession,' she said. 'This is not a chance previous generations had, and I can't see how I wouldn't take advantage of that.'

Other students have turned to the armed forces, where they said they could learn a variety of skills easily transferable to private business. Wendy Martinez, 17, another graduate of Manual Arts High, decided to join the Army because she said it would assure her of a secure future.

And though the job market is tight, there are high-skilled jobs paying well that go begging for lack of qualified workers, including aerospace machinists and computer programers, said Nancy Hardy, the supervisor of the Salt Lake City Public Schools' department of guidance counselors and a former president of the American School Counselors Association. 'I'm Not Going to Worry'

Maurice Palmer, 17, who graduated last week from Martin Luther King High School in Northwest Philadelphia, insisted in the face of evidence to the contrary that, while the job market is tight, 'we have more opportunities than our parents.' Mr. Palmer, who plans to pursue a career in banking, added, 'I'm not going to worry.'

But more often than not, pessimism and uncertainty are the prevailing moods of this generation of graduates, who believe that more education will not necessarily guarantee that they will match their parents' quality of life.

'This generation has a lot of problems,' said Lindsey Williams, 18, who graduated last week from Sheepshead Bay High School in Brooklyn and plans to attend St. John's University in Queens this fall. 'All I can do is hope and have a little bit of faith in myself.'

Tracy Whitsett, who graduated this year from Houston's Memorial High School, plans to major in nuclear engineering at the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque. The dour job forecasts for this decade prompted her to decide on nuclear engineering over her first choice, astrophysics, because she thinks it will give her a better chance of finding work. More Going for Degrees

The increased competitiveness, combined with unpromising job market projections, has prompted many more students who ordinarily would not have pursued higher education to do so.

'I think it was easier before,' said Hiram Duarte, a graduate of Miami High School whose father was a laborer until an injury disabled him and whose mother finished only the fifth grade in Cuba. 'With a strong attitude and a strong fist you could do anything. Now you can't do anything without a college education.'

Astrophysics Xis 5335 Manual Arts High School

Mr. Duarte, who already works part-time and is looking for a second summer job to raise money for his college education, plans to attend Florida State University in January. He plans to work toward a teacher's certificate so he can teach woodworking in high school. In time, he wants to own several cabinet-making shops.

Astrophysics Xis 5335 Manual Arts And Crafts

'You would never make enough now to buy a house and a raise a family without a college education,' he said. 'That is making me go to school. I want to come home at the end of the day carrying a briefcase in my hand rather than with a broken back.' Extra Efforts by Immigrants

Other students who found school particularly taxing, especially those who were recent immigrants, made extra efforts to succeed because of the tougher job climate. Maria Garcia, a 20-year-old graduate of Manual Arts High School in Los Angeles, is a case in point.

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'It was hard for me to come from Mexico only four years ago -- to learn the language, to learn the customs,' said Miss Garcia, who plans to major in business in college. 'But if I can graduate from high school only four years after coming to this country, and enter a college, I know I can succeed after college.'

Parents and grandparents who celebrated the commencements of their children and grandchildren said they could only hope that this generation would navigate the uncertainties facing them.

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'It looks like things are going backward,' said Shirley Williams, shaking her head over the tightening, and changing, job market. Her grandson, Carl Williams, graduated last week from Abraham Lincoln High School in Philadelphia, and agreed with his grandmother when she said, 'It's going to get worse before it gets better.'

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